Australian Housing Market Outlook: Cost Projections for 2024 and 2025

A current report by Domain predicts that property prices in numerous regions of the nation, particularly in Perth, Adelaide, Brisbane, and Sydney, are anticipated to see considerable boosts in the upcoming financial

House rates in the major cities are anticipated to rise in between 4 and 7 percent, with unit to increase by 3 to 5 percent.

By the end of the 2025 fiscal year, the average home cost will have exceeded $1.7 million in Sydney and $800,000 in Perth, according to the Domain Projection Report. Adelaide and Brisbane will be on the cusp of breaking the $1 million typical home price, if they have not already strike seven figures.

The housing market in the Gold Coast is anticipated to reach new highs, with costs projected to increase by 3 to 6 percent, while the Sunlight Coast is anticipated to see an increase of 2 to 5 percent. Dr. Nicola Powell, the chief economic expert at Domain, kept in mind that the expected development rates are relatively moderate in a lot of cities compared to previous strong upward trends. She discussed that rates are still increasing, albeit at a slower than in the previous financial. The cities of Perth and Adelaide are exceptions to this pattern, with Adelaide halted, and Perth showing no indications of slowing down.

Rental costs for homes are expected to increase in the next year, reaching all-time highs in Sydney, Brisbane, Adelaide, Perth, the Gold Coast, and the Sunlight Coast.

According to Powell, there will be a general cost increase of 3 to 5 per cent in regional systems, indicating a shift towards more affordable home options for purchasers.
Melbourne's property sector differs from the rest, anticipating a modest annual increase of as much as 2% for houses. As a result, the median house rate is projected to stabilize in between $1.03 million and $1.05 million, making it the most slow and unpredictable rebound the city has ever experienced.

The Melbourne housing market experienced an extended slump from 2022 to 2023, with the average home rate dropping by 6.3% - a considerable $69,209 decline - over a period of 5 consecutive quarters. According to Powell, even with an optimistic 2% development projection, the city's house costs will just manage to recoup about half of their losses.
Home rates in Canberra are prepared for to continue recovering, with a forecasted moderate development ranging from 0 to 4 percent.

"According to Powell, the capital city continues to face difficulties in attaining a steady rebound and is expected to experience a prolonged and slow rate of development."

The projection of upcoming price hikes spells problem for potential homebuyers struggling to scrape together a down payment.

"It indicates various things for different kinds of purchasers," Powell said. "If you're a current property owner, rates are expected to rise so there is that aspect that the longer you leave it, the more equity you may have. Whereas if you're a first-home purchaser, it may mean you have to conserve more."

Australia's real estate market stays under significant strain as homes continue to come to grips with cost and serviceability limitations in the middle of the cost-of-living crisis, heightened by continual high rates of interest.

The Reserve Bank of Australia has actually kept the official cash rate at a decade-high of 4.35 per cent because late last year.

According to the Domain report, the restricted schedule of brand-new homes will stay the main aspect affecting property values in the near future. This is due to a prolonged scarcity of buildable land, slow building and construction authorization issuance, and raised structure expenditures, which have actually limited real estate supply for a prolonged duration.

A silver lining for prospective property buyers is that the approaching phase 3 tax decreases will put more cash in individuals's pockets, consequently increasing their capability to get loans and eventually, their buying power nationwide.

Powell said this could further bolster Australia's housing market, but may be offset by a decline in real wages, as living costs rise faster than wages.

"If wage growth stays at its current level we will continue to see extended cost and moistened need," she stated.

In regional Australia, house and unit prices are expected to grow moderately over the next 12 months, although the outlook varies between states.

"At the same time, a growing population propped up by strong migration continues to be the wind in the sail of residential or commercial property cost growth," Powell said.

The current overhaul of the migration system might result in a drop in demand for regional real estate, with the introduction of a new stream of skilled visas to get rid of the reward for migrants to reside in a local location for two to three years on going into the country.
This will mean that "an even higher percentage of migrants will flock to metropolitan areas looking for better job prospects, hence moistening need in the local sectors", Powell said.

However regional locations near to metropolitan areas would remain appealing areas for those who have been priced out of the city and would continue to see an increase of need, she included.

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